Iki kibazo.
Igihe: 2021-8-1-2021-8-31
Ijambo ryibanze: kubuza umusaruro kugabanya ikidendezi cyibikoresho fatizo
Iki gitabo.
Review Isubiramo ryisoko: ibiciro byazamutse cyane kubera kuzamuka kwiza kubibuza umusaruro.
Analysis Isesengura ryo gutanga: Isoko rikomeje gusezerana, kandi ibarura rihinduka kuva kuzamuka kugera kugwa.
Analysis Isesengura ry'ibisabwa: ubushyuhe bwinshi n'ingaruka z'imvura, imikorere isaba intege nke.
Analysis Isesengura ryibiciro: ibikoresho fatizo byagabanutse igice, inkunga yibiciro iragabanuka.
Isesengura rya Macro: politiki yiterambere ihamye ntigihinduka kandi inganda ziratera imbere neza.
Ibitekerezo byuzuye: Muri Nyakanga, byatewe n’ivugurura ry’igihugu hose ndetse n’amakuru agabanya ibicuruzwa, ibiciro by’ibyuma by’imbere mu gihugu byatangiye kwiyongera. Mugihe, macro-inkuru nziza yasohotse kenshi, gushyira mubikorwa byuzuye kumanuka; amarangamutima yibitekerezo yongeye gushyuha, isoko ryigihe kizaza ryazamutse cyane; munsi yo gutegereza kugabanya umusaruro, inganda zicyuma zikurura igiciro cyahoze muruganda. Ibiciro by'ibyuma byazamutse mu gihembwe kitari gito, byiyongera cyane kuruta uko byari byitezwe, ahanini kubera politiki yo kugabanya umusaruro w’ibyuma bya peteroli ahantu henshi hakurikiraho, inganda zimwe na zimwe z’ibyuma zatangiye kugabanya umusaruro, igitutu cy’ibicuruzwa kugira ngo byorohereze nyuma y’isoko ry’imari kugira ngo basunike umuraba. Nyamara, hamwe n’ibiciro bikomeje kuzamuka, imikorere ikenewe cyane muri rusange, mu bushyuhe bwinshi n’ikirere cy’imvura, iyubakwa ry’imishinga y’ubwubatsi rirabangamiwe, ibicuruzwa bya terefone byagabanutse cyane ugereranije n’ukwezi gushize. Isoko n'ibisabwa bikunda gucika intege mu byerekezo byombi, kandi urubanza rwacu mu kwezi gushize ni rumwe, ariko kugabanuka kw'ibicuruzwa byongerewe imbaraga ku buryo budasubirwaho n'isoko ry'imari shingiro, bikaza umurego mu isoko. Muri rusange, muri Nyakanga, byari biteganijwe ko izamuka ryiyongera, kandi uruhare rw’imari shoramari rwaragaragaye neza. Nyuma yo kwinjira muri Kanama, uburyo bwo gutanga inzira ebyiri no kugabanya ibyifuzo bizahinduka: kuruhande rwibitangwa, kubera umurimo utoroshye wo guhagarika umusaruro, uduce tumwe na tumwe tuzakomeza kwagura igipimo cy’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga, umusaruro uragoye kongera; kuruhande rwibisabwa, hamwe nubutabazi bwikirere gikabije, icyifuzo cyatinze giteganijwe gukira. Kubwibyo, turateganya ko muri Kanama ibikoresho byubwubatsi byimbere mu gihugu bitangwa hamwe nibisabwa bizashyirwa mubikorwa, ibiciro byibyuma hamwe nubuso bwazamutse. Ariko, hamwe n’ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga, amabuye y'icyuma aherutse, ibisigazwa n’ibindi biciro fatizo byagabanutse ku rugero runaka, biteganijwe ko uruganda rukora ibyuma rukurura imbaraga rukomeye ruzagenda rugabanuka, kwagura inyungu nyuma y’imbaraga zo kubuza umusaruro cyangwa gucika intege (ibyuma byo mu itanura ryamashanyarazi ntabwo biri mubikorwa byubuyobozi). Byongeye kandi, bimwe mu bicuruzwa by’ibyuma byoherezwa mu mahanga guhindura imisoro yo kugabanya imisoro bizagabanya umubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa, kwiyongera kw’imitungo itimukanwa, bizagira ingaruka ku muvuduko wo kurekura ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga. -Biteganijwe ko igiciro cya rebar yujuje ubuziranenge muri Shanghai muri Kanama (hashingiwe ku cyerekezo cya Xiben) kizaba kiri hagati ya 5.500-5,800 Yuan / toni.
Isubiramo: Ibiciro by'ibyuma byazamutse cyane muri Nyakanga
I. Gusubiramo isoko
Muri Nyakanga 2021, ibiciro by'ibyuma byubatswe mu gihugu byazamutse cyane, guhera ku ya 30 Nyakanga, icyerekezo cya Steel Westbourne cyafunzwe kuri 5570, cyiyongera 480 guhera mu mpera z'ukwezi gushize.
Isubiramo rya Nyakanga, nubwo gakondo isabwa ibihe bitari ibihe, ariko isoko ryubwubatsi bwimbere mu gihugu irwanya-kwiyongera, impamvu, cyane cyane ko uruhande rwa politiki rwo gukomeza guhungabana, isoko riteganijwe kuba ryiza. By'umwihariko, mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka, mu kurekura ibicuruzwa bibujijwe no gutekereza ku isoko byatewe n'imyumvire, muri rusange ibiciro by'ibyuma byo kubaka mu gihugu biri hejuru; hagati, uruganda rukora ibyuma akenshi rwazamuye igiciro cyahoze mu ruganda, isoko hafi yo gushiraho imiyoboro, izamuka ryibiciro kugirango ryiyongere; bitinze, mu bushyuhe bwinshi bukikije imvura n’uturere tumwe na tumwe twatewe n’ikirere cya serwakira, kubaka imishinga birahagarikwa, kurekura ibyifuzo bya terminal ntibihagije, izamuka ry’ibiciro ryaragabanutse. Muri rusange, kubera ko uruhande rutanga kugabanuka ruteganijwe gukomeza gushimangirwa, isoko ry’imari shingiro ryagize uruhare runini ku giciro cy’ahantu, amaherezo bigatuma ibiciro by’ibyuma by’imbere mu gihugu muri Nyakanga birenze ibyo byari byitezwe.
Ibiciro byubwubatsi bwimbere mu gihugu muri Nyakanga nyuma yo kuzamuka gukomeye, isoko rya Kanama kuzamuka niba inzira ikomeje? Ni izihe mpinduka zizabaho ku nganda shingiro? Hamwe nibibazo byinshi, hamwe na raporo yo gusesengura isoko ryimbere muri Kanama.
, Isesengura
1, ibikoresho byo kubaka ibyuma byo murugo isesengura ryibihe
Kugeza ku ya 30 Nyakanga, ibarura rusange ry’ibiti by’imbere mu gihugu byari toni 15.481.400, byiyongereyeho toni 794.000 cyangwa 5.4% guhera mu mpera za Kamena, kandi byagabanutseho toni 247.500 cyangwa 1,6% ugereranije n’icyo gihe cyashize umwaka ushize. Muri byo, ibarura ry'urudodo, inkoni y'insinga, izunguruka zishyushye, imbeho ikonje hamwe n'isahani yo hagati yari toni 8.355.700, toni 1.651.100, toni 2,996.800, toni 1,119.800 na toni 1,286.000. Usibye kugabanuka gake mububiko buzengurutse ubukonje, ibarura ryandi moko atanu yingenzi yibyuma byo murugo byazamutse kurwego runaka, ariko sibyinshi.
Nk’uko isesengura ry’amakuru ribigaragaza, muri Nyakanga, isoko ry’ibyuma byo mu gihugu n’ibisabwa bikubye kabiri. Uruhande rusabwa: rwibasiwe nimpamvu zitari ibihe, imikorere isaba itinda iragabanuka, hafi yubucuruzi bwagabanutse cyane ugereranije na Kamena, ariko ibyifuzo byisoko ni byiza. Uruhande rutanga: Nyuma ya politiki yo guhagarika umusaruro wibyuma bya peteroli mu ntara zimwe na zimwe, biteganijwe ko igabanywa ry’ibicuruzwa rizakomera. Urebye ko imbogamizi z’umusaruro zizakomeza kongerwa nyuma yo kwinjira muri Kanama, mu gihe biteganijwe ko imikorere isabwa izatera imbere, aho biteganijwe ko ibarura rizajya ryinjira.
2, isesengura ryibyuma byo murugo
Dukurikije imibare iheruka gutangwa n’ishyirahamwe ry’ibyuma by’Ubushinwa, hagati muri Nyakanga 2021, inganda z’ibyuma z’ibarurishamibare zakoze toni 21.936.900 zose z’ibyuma bitavanze, toni 19.089.000 z’icyuma cy’ingurube, toni 212.681.000 z'ibyuma. Ikigereranyo cy'umusaruro wa buri munsi muri iyi myaka icumi, ibyuma bya toni 2,193.700, byiyongereyeho 2,62% ringgit na 2,59% umwaka ushize; icyuma cy'ingurube toni 1.908.900, kwiyongera kwa 2,63% ringgit no kugabanuka kwa 0.01% umwaka ushize; ibyuma toni 2,126.800, kwiyongera kwa 8.35% ringgit na 4.29% umwaka ushize.
3, gusesengura ibyuma byimbere mu gihugu no kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze
Nk’uko Ubuyobozi Bukuru bwa gasutamo bugaragaza ko muri Kamena 2021, Ubushinwa bwohereje toni miliyoni 6.458 z'ibyuma, byiyongereyeho toni miliyoni 1.1870, ni ukuvuga 22.52%; kwiyongera ku mwaka ku mwaka wa 74.5%; Mutarama-Kamena Ubushinwa bwohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga toni miliyoni 37.382, byiyongereyeho 30.2%. Kamena Ubushinwa butumiza mu mahanga toni miliyoni 1.252, bugabanuka 33.4%; Mutarama-Kamena Ubushinwa bwatumije mu mahanga kuva muri Mutarama kugeza muri Kamena, Ubushinwa bwatumije toni miliyoni 7.349 z'ibyuma, byiyongereyeho 0.1% umwaka ushize.
4, ibiteganijwe gutanga ibyuma byubwubatsi ukwezi gutaha
Muri Nyakanga, bitewe na politiki yo kugabanya umusaruro mu gihugu hose, ahantu henshi hatanzwe kugira ngo igabanye inshingano, igitutu cy’ibicuruzwa byo mu karere cyagabanutse cyane. Ariko, hamwe nibiciro byibyuma byazamutse cyane, inyungu zibyuma zarasanwe, umuvuduko wo gutanga umuvuduko ugabanuka bidahuye. Urebye ko nyuma yo kwinjira muri Kanama, ibihano by’umusaruro w’ubuyobozi bizarushaho kwiyongera, ariko igabanuka ry’umusaruro rishingiye ku isoko rizagenda rigabanuka, turateganya ko ibikoresho byo mu gihugu imbere muri Kanama bitazagabanuka.
Ⅲ, uko ibintu byifashe
1, Shanghai kubaka ibyuma byo kugurisha ibyerekezo
Mukakaro, ibyifuzo byimbere mu gihugu byagabanutse kuva mumwaka ushize. Hagati y'ukwezi, bitewe n'ubushyuhe bwo hejuru, irekurwa ry'ibyifuzo bya terefone byari bike; mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka, Ubushinwa bw'Iburasirazuba bwahuye n'ikirere cy'inkubi y'umuyaga, ububiko bumwe na bumwe bwarafunzwe, kandi ubucuruzi bw'isoko burabangamirwa. Muri rusange, ibihe bitari ibihe birahambaye cyane, ibicuruzwa byagabanutse cyane uhereye kumpeta. Ariko, nyuma yo kwinjira muri Kanama, biteganijwe ko uruhande rusabwa ruzafata bike: kuruhande rumwe, uruhande rwinkunga ruroroshye, kandi icyifuzo cyatinze mugihe cyashize biteganijwe ko kizarekurwa; kurundi ruhande, ubushyuhe bwo hejuru buragabanuka, kandi ibyateganijwe kumanuka biteganijwe kwiyongera. Kubwibyo, isoko ifite ibyifuzo bimwe mubisabwa muri Kanama.
IV. Isesengura ry'ibiciro
1, isesengura ryibikoresho fatizo
Muri Nyakanga, ibiciro fatizo byagabanutse igice. Dukurikije amakuru yakurikiranwe na Xiben New Trunk Line, kugeza ku ya 30 Nyakanga, igiciro cyahoze cy’uruganda rwa fagitire isanzwe ya karubone mu gace ka Tangshan cyari 5270 Yuan / toni, kikaba cyiyongereyeho 360 yu / toni ugereranije n’igiciro mu mpera z'ukwezi gushize; igiciro cy'ibisigazwa mu gace ka Jiangsu byari 3720 Yuan / toni, byiyongereyeho 80 / toni ugereranije no mu mpera z'ukwezi gushize; igiciro cya kokiya ya kabiri mu gace ka Shanxi cyari 2440 yu / toni, cyamanutseho 120 yu / toni ugereranije n’igiciro mu mpera z'ukwezi gushize; igiciro cya 65-66 uburyohe bwamabuye yicyuma mugace ka Tangshan yari 1600 yuan / toni. Igiciro cyumye gishingiye ku byuma byibanze mu gace ka Tangshan cyari amafaranga 1.600 / toni, hejuru ya 50 / toni ugereranije n’ukwezi gushize; Ibipimo bya 62% byamabuye y'icyuma byari USD195 / toni, bikamanuka USD 23.4 / toni ugereranije nu mpera zukwezi gushize.
Muri uku kwezi, kugabanuka kwamabuye yatumijwe mu mahanga biragaragara cyane, inyungu y’uruganda rukora ibyuma yarasanwe.
2, ikiguzi cyibyuma byubaka ukwezi gutaha biteganijwe
Isoko ryuzuye hamwe nibisabwa, turateganya: ubutare bwicyuma buzakomeza kugwa nyuma; gutanga kokiya birakomeye, igiciro cyazamutseho gato; gusiba ibyuma bisabwa kubuza umusaruro, kubuza ingufu, ibiciro cyangwa gusubira hejuru. Urebye neza, ibiciro byubwubatsi bwimbere mu gihugu biteganijwe ko bizagabanuka gato muri Kanama.
V. Amakuru ya Macro
1, inzira nyamukuru hamwe ninzego zinyuranye “14 gatanu” inzira yo kugabanya karubone yinganda irasobanutse
Mu rwego rwo hejuru ya karubone, kutabogama kwa karubone, kuva muri minisiteri kugera mu karere byihutisha ihinduka ry’icyatsi kibisi gito. Umunyamakuru yamenye ko “Gahunda ya 14 y’imyaka itanu” yo guteza imbere icyatsi n’inganda na “14th Five-Year-5” yo guteza imbere inganda z’ibikoresho fatizo izashyirwa ahagaragara vuba, mu gihe inzego zibishinzwe zizashyiraho gahunda yo gushyira mu bikorwa karubone idafite ingufu. ibyuma, ibikoresho byubaka, ibyuma nizindi nganda zingenzi, no gusobanura kugabanya karubone yinganda Inzira yo kuyishyira mu bikorwa izasobanurwa, kandi iterambere ry’inganda nshya n’inganda n’ikoranabuhanga ryihuse bizihutishwa, kandi umubare w’ikoreshwa ry’ingufu zisukure uziyongera . Uturere kandi twoherejwe cyane muguhinga no guteza imbere inganda zicyatsi, kwihutisha ikoreshwa ryikoranabuhanga rishya ryamakuru makuru mugukora icyatsi, no gukora parike nyinshi zicyatsi ninganda zicyatsi, nibindi, kugirango byihute hejuru yicyatsi kibisi na karuboni nkeya -iterambere ry’inganda.
2, Ubushinwa bwazamuye ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’ibyuma byoherezwa mu mahanga, kuvanaho umusoro ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku bicuruzwa byongerewe agaciro
Komisiyo ishinzwe imisoro mu Nama ya Leta yatangaje ko, mu rwego rwo guteza imbere impinduka no kuzamura inganda z’ibyuma n’iterambere ryiza, Komisiyo ishinzwe imisoro y’inama y’igihugu yemeje ko hongerwa mu buryo bukwiye amahoro yoherezwa mu mahanga ya ferrochrome n’icyuma cy’ingurube zifite isuku nyinshi guhera ku ya 1 Kanama, 2021, nyuma yo guhindura igipimo cy’imisoro yoherezwa mu mahanga kingana na 40% na 20%. Byongeye kandi, nk'uko byatangajwe na Minisiteri y’Imari n’Ubuyobozi bwa Leta bw’imisoro, kuva ku ya 1 Kanama 2021, Ubushinwa nabwo buzahagarika umusoro ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku bwoko 23 bw’ibicuruzwa by’ibyuma nka gari ya moshi. Ubu ni ubwa kabiri hahinduwe ibiciro by’ibyuma by’Ubushinwa kuva uyu mwaka, ihinduka rya mbere ry’imisoro muri Gicurasi, rigumana imisoro ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bikubiyemo amategeko 23 y’imisoro y’ibicuruzwa byongerewe agaciro, iki gihe byose birahagarikwa.
3, Mutarama-Kamena Inganda z’inganda zigihugu hejuru yubunini bwinyungu yazamutseho 66.9% umwaka ushize
Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza muri Kamena, mu nganda 41 zikomeye z’inganda, inganda 39 zongereye inyungu zose uko umwaka utashye, inganda 1 zahinduye igihombo mu nyungu, naho inganda 1 zikomeza kuba nziza. Inyungu nyamukuru mu nganda nizo zikurikira: inganda zidafite fer fer na fonction inganda zitunganya inyungu zose ziyongereyeho inshuro 2,73, inganda ziva muri peteroli na gaze ziyongereyeho inshuro 2,49, inganda zikora fer fer na inganda zitunganya ibicuruzwa byiyongereyeho 2,34, ibikoresho fatizo bya chimique na Inganda zikora imiti ziyongereyeho inshuro 1.77, ubucukuzi bw’amakara no gukaraba bwiyongereyeho 1,14, inganda zikora amamodoka ziyongereyeho 45.2%, mudasobwa, itumanaho n’izindi nganda zikora ibikoresho bya elegitoronike ziyongereyeho 45.2%, imashini zikoresha amashanyarazi n’inganda zikora ibikoresho byiyongereyeho 36.1 %, inganda zikora ibikoresho rusange ziyongereyeho 34.5%, inganda zidasanzwe zikora ibikoresho byiyongereyeho 31.0%, inganda ziva mu bucukuzi bw’amabuye y'agaciro ziyongereyeho 26.7%, amashanyarazi, umusaruro w’ubushyuhe n’itangwa ryiyongereyeho 9.5%.
, Isoko mpuzamahanga
Muri Kamena 2021, umusaruro w’ibyuma bya peteroli ku isi mu bihugu 64 byashyizwe mu mibare y’ishyirahamwe ry’ibyuma ku isi byari toni miliyoni 167.9, byiyongereyeho 11,6%.
By'umwihariko, Ubushinwa butanga ibyuma bya peteroli byari toni miliyoni 93.9, byiyongereyeho 1.5% umwaka ushize; Umusaruro w’ibyuma bya peteroli mu Buhinde wari toni miliyoni 9.4, wiyongereyeho 21.4% umwaka ushize; Umusaruro w’ibyuma by’Ubuyapani wari toni miliyoni 8.1, wiyongereyeho 44.4% umwaka ushize; umusaruro w’ibyuma muri Amerika wari toni miliyoni 7.1, wiyongereyeho 44.4% umwaka ushize; Ikigereranyo cy’Uburusiya cyatanze umusaruro wa toni miliyoni 6.4, cyiyongereyeho 11.4% umwaka ushize; Umusaruro w’ibyuma bya Koreya yepfo wari toni miliyoni 6, wiyongereyeho 17.35%; Ubudage butanga ibyuma bya toni miliyoni 3.4, byiyongereyeho 38.2%; Turkiya itanga ibyuma bya toni miliyoni 3.4, byiyongereyeho 17.9%; Burezili itanga ibyuma bya toni miliyoni 3.1, byiyongereyeho 45.2%; Irani ibyuma bya peteroli bivuga ko umusaruro wa toni miliyoni 2.5, wiyongereyeho 1.9%.
VII. Reba neza
Muri Nyakanga, byatewe no kubungabunga igihugu cyose, amakuru yo kugabanya umusaruro, ibiciro byubwubatsi bwimbere mu gihugu byatangiye kwiyongera. Mugihe, macro-inkuru nziza kenshi, gushyira mubikorwa byuzuye kumanuka; amarangamutima yibitekerezo byongeye, isoko ryigihe kizaza yazamutse cyane; mu kugabanya umusaruro uteganijwe, uruganda rukora ibyuma rukurura igiciro cyahoze ari uruganda. Ibiciro by'ibyuma byazamutse mu gihembwe kitari gito, byiyongera cyane kuruta uko byari byitezwe, ahanini kubera politiki yo kugabanya umusaruro w’ibyuma bya peteroli ahantu henshi hakurikiraho, inganda zimwe na zimwe z’ibyuma zatangiye kugabanya umusaruro, igitutu cy’ibicuruzwa kugira ngo byorohereze nyuma y’isoko ry’imari kugira ngo basunike umuraba. Nyamara, hamwe n’ibiciro bikomeje kuzamuka, imikorere ikenewe cyane muri rusange, mu bushyuhe bwinshi n’ikirere cy’imvura, iyubakwa ry’imishinga y’ubwubatsi rirabangamiwe, umubare w’ibicuruzwa wagabanutse cyane ugereranije n’ukwezi gushize. Isoko n'ibisabwa bikunda gucika intege mu byerekezo byombi, kandi urubanza rwacu mu kwezi gushize ni rumwe, ariko kugabanuka kw'ibicuruzwa kwaguzwe ku buryo budasubirwaho n'isoko ry'imari shingiro, bikarushaho gukaza umurego ku isoko. Muri rusange, muri Nyakanga, byari biteganijwe ko izamuka ryiyongera, kandi uruhare rw’imari shoramari rwaragaragaye neza. Nyuma yo kwinjira muri Kanama, uburyo bwo gutanga no kugabanya ibyifuzo bibiri bizahinduka: kuruhande rwibitangwa, kubera akazi katoroshye ko guhagarika umusaruro, uduce tumwe na tumwe tuzakomeza kwagura igipimo cy’ibibuza umusaruro, umusaruro uragoye kongera; kuruhande rwibisabwa, hamwe nubutabazi bwikirere gikabije, icyifuzo cyatinze giteganijwe gukira. Kubwibyo, turateganya ko muri Kanama ibikoresho byubwubatsi byimbere mu gihugu bitangwa hamwe nibisabwa bizashyirwa mubikorwa, ibiciro byibyuma hamwe nubuso bwazamutse. Ariko, hamwe n’ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga, ubutare bwa fer, ibisigazwa n’ibindi bikoresho fatizo biherutse kugabanuka ku rugero runaka, uruganda rukora ibyuma rw’ibiro by’ingufu ziteganijwe kugabanuka, kwagura inyungu nyuma y’imbaraga zo kubuza umusaruro cyangwa gucika intege (ibyuma byo mu itanura ryamashanyarazi ntabwo biri mubikorwa byubuyobozi). Byongeye kandi, ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’ibyuma byoherezwa mu mahanga guhindura imisoro yo kugabanya imisoro bizagabanya umubare w’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa, kwiyongera kw’imitungo itimukanwa, bizagira ingaruka ku muvuduko wo gusohora ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga.
Biteganijwe ko igiciro cya rebar yujuje ubuziranenge muri Shanghai muri Kanama kizaba kiri hagati ya 5.500-5,800 yuan / toni.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kanama-01-2021